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## CHAT LOG for Thursday, December 11, 2008

12:05 am
trueheart11

gogogo
12:10 am
trueheart11

done. no greens
12:19 am
WHB

Done
1:49 am
Polarbear05

no greens...
1:54 am
Ed-was_here

Go
2:04 am
Ed-was_here

Done no greens
2:04 am
Ed-was_here

Done no greens
2:17 am
eyeman

clickety-click done.
2:17 am
drwho

That's the way it's going here too (mostly).
2:18 am
eyeman

pretty soon we'll have 100 elites
2:19 am
drwho

Difficulty score 14. No green.
2:20 am
eyeman

Nice to see Killian at 200 points today!
2:20 am
drwho

Eyeman, in case you missed it, I am predicting that we will reach 2000 points by April 24th, 2010, give or take a day.
2:21 am
drwho

Oops, that's 3000 points.
2:21 am
eyeman

That's better!
2:21 am
eyeman

How did you arrive at that date?
2:22 am
eyeman

Seems like a good guess, tho.
2:23 am
drwho

Statistical analysis. It took 1004 days to reach 2000. I did a calculation of the variance of the mean for puzzle scores and projected the date and confidence interval.
2:25 am
eyeman

ok. that makes sense, assuming you'll post puzzles that are an average mix of easies, mediums, hards, and experts.
2:25 am
drwho

Right. I assume that what we have seen so far is an indication of what will be seen in the future.
2:27 am
eyeman

Did it take an equal number of days to reach 2000 from 1000 as it did from zero to 1000 ?
2:27 am
drwho

I am not a statistician, but I have worked with one. He told me that predictions based on statistics are often referred to by the acronym SWAG.
2:28 am
drwho

Science of the Wild A** Guess.
2:29 am
eyeman

Very good. I'll remember that. Did you see my previous question?
2:31 am
drwho

No, I didn't see it, and I can't answer it offhand because it would take some lengthy tabulations to find out when we actually reached 1000.
2:33 am
eyeman

Oh, then you saw it since that addressed my question about same number of days from 0 to 1000 as from 1000 to 2000.
2:34 am
eyeman

Of course, using the SWAG formula, the answer is yes !
2:35 am
eyeman

Well, back to bed to get a little more rest. Let's see if the Illinois governor resigns today.
2:36 am
drwho

I just did a quick scan of the archives an I found a comment you made on the 503rd puzzle that there were only 10 more points to go to 1000.
2:36 am
eyeman

Really??
2:36 am
drwho

Yes, so it took longer to get from 0 to 1000 than from 1000 to 2000!
2:37 am
eyeman

Aha!
2:37 am
drwho

I may have to rethink the significance of the variation of the mean in this calculation.
2:38 am
eyeman

OK, as long as we don't get a steady diet of easies or experts to slow down or speed up the process.
2:39 am
drwho

The 1000 point is not too far off the middle point in time between 0 and 2000, but further than I expected.
2:40 am
drwho

Such is SWAG.
2:40 am
eyeman

Maybe the reason is by posting more easies in the beginning you attracted more "customers". Good business move!
2:41 am
drwho

Yes, but one of the toughest puzzles was published in the first month too.
2:42 am
eyeman

That also attracted customers because of the challenge. I recall having a headache for several days back then, thanks to you.
2:42 am
drwho

No, not me. I am not the proprietor of this web site!
2:43 am
drwho

That would be Dr_God
2:45 am
eyeman

OK, I misdirected my "complaint". Thanks - I'll credit Dr_God for the headache.
2:46 am
eyeman

Anyway, it's good chatting - I'll head back for a few more zzzzs till dawn. Take care!
2:46 am
drwho

Good night.
3:03 am
MrOoijer

ckick/click easy
4:17 am
Andy

Resume yesterday's
4:20 am
Voon

Go
4:26 am
Andy

that's done.
4:27 am
Andy

Go on today's
4:27 am
Voon

Done
4:28 am
Voon

No green
4:35 am
Andy

Done
4:35 am
Andy

No greens
4:35 am
Andy

Go on 12/9
4:44 am
Andy

done
4:45 am
Andy

Caught up again. Off to other fun things. Good day all!
5:40 am
kaosangel

Morning. Go.
5:47 am
kaosangel

Done. No Greens.
6:04 am
kixx

do
6:17 am
kixx

done, no greens
8:08 am
yul

hello
8:15 am
yul

easy
8:31 am
Phil

start
8:46 am
katmama

go
8:52 am
katmama

done, no greens
8:55 am
Phil

done once I woke up! Crazy nodding off whist doing puzzles!
10:20 am
RodeoRogue

go
10:25 am
RodeoRogue

pasue
10:43 am
RodeoRogue

play on
10:43 am
RodeoRogue

done, no greens
2:47 pm
K M

finished ... no greens
2:56 pm
helenkeller

go
3:02 pm
helenkeller

no green
3:33 pm
ypsigirl

done no greens
4:33 pm
Montreal13

done no greens - have a great day all !
4:42 pm
Atalante

why are you in UAE, Luc??!!
5:05 pm
Montreal13

Hi Ata... if you're still there !! - I move around simply for "flag variety"...
5:07 pm
Montreal13

ok then, see you around in Babbleland..."poof"
5:13 pm
brittlefish.com

go
5:21 pm
brittlefish.com

done. no green./
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